The Ukraine War now represents Europe’s biggest refugee crisis since World War II. Recent reports from UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency, state that more than 5 million people have fled the country since Russia invaded on February 24, 2022.
According to the agency, Ukraine had a population of 44 million prior to the war. Now, two months after the invasion began, more than 7 million people have been internally displaced, in addition to the 5.7 million who had fled the country as of May 3, 2022. UNHCR states that another 13 million people are likely to be trapped in war-torn areas, with little-to-no access to food, medical care, water, or housing.
Comments made by UNICEF Spokesperson James Elder emphasized the gravity of the crisis, who in a press briefing at the Palais des Nations in Geneva on March 15 stated “Every single minute, 55 children have fled their country. A Ukrainian child has become a refugee almost every single second since the start of the war.”
Image Source: UNICEF (2022).
Image Source: Reuters (2022).
The refugee crisis intensified in late April as Russia initiated a large-scale offensive in eastern Ukraine, near the Donbas region. The Donbas region is home to the Siverskyi Donets Donbas (SDD) canal, which supplies water for the 6 million Ukrainians living in-and-around the region. Parts of the system stopped functioning immediately after the invasion in February, when power systems across the country became unstable. An article in Quartz states that “[a]ny scenario in which Donbas’ water is weaponized and restricted, either by Russia or Ukraine, is a worrying one for the citizens who depend upon the SDD canal,” underscoring the potential threat that Russia’s offensive has on Ukrainian infrastructure.
The number of civilian casualties and the destruction of critical infrastructure continues to amass as the conflict escalates, forcing people to flee their homes in search of safety and assistance. In response to the emergency, CrisisReady generated and disseminated maps highlighting the evolving changes in population densities across Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and Romania, all of which are situated along the western border of Ukraine. The maps generated use human mobility data as proxies to estimate and predict the movement of refugees as the war unfolded.
More recently, CrisisReady developed an interactive dashboard that provides signals to changing movement patterns in Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Romania, and The Republic of Moldova on a continual basis. Its role is to help augment or add-to existing operational updates, conversations, and humanitarian information products being used to support those displaced by the war in Ukraine.
Country Updates
Poland
- Poland has received 3,119,196 refugees (between February 24 and May 4, 2022), according to data from the UNHCR. Poland currently stands as the number one highest receiver of Ukrainian refugees since the war broke out.
- The current number of refugees in the country exceeds predictions made by UNHCR on March 1 by 108%. The report estimated the country would receive 1,500,000 refugees by July 2022.
- 57% of refugees entering Poland said they intend to stay in the country as long as conflict in Ukraine continues.*
- 48% of refugees entering Poland (as of April 27, 2022) claimed the country was their target destination.*
- 78% of refugees entering Poland (as of April 27, 2022) are traveling with children, of which 19% were under 5.*
- 12% are traveling with older persons, 65+ years of age. (As of April 27, 2022)*
- 4% are traveling with persons with disabilities. (As of April 27, 2022)*
- In the country, refugees are eligible for national ID numbers that entitle them to work, free health care, schooling, and financial compensation for families with children.
- Between March and August 2022, UNHCR predicts that Poland will require a budget of $202,487,000 for humanitarian response efforts and refugee relief services. Predicted budgets continue to rise as more refugees enter the country.
- The government of Poland has stated that it will need more money than the EU is currently offering in order to host the number of people arriving there, according BBC World News.
* These statistics are based on 3,531 interviews UNHCR conducted with people crossing from Ukraine into Poland, and were published in the agency’s situation report on Ukrainian Refugees, released on April 27, 2022. Interviews were conducted at every border checkpoint and certain reception centers, and began on 28 February. These statistics are based on cumulative responses from 28 February to 27 April, 2022.
Hungary
- Hungary has received more than 854,292 refugees (between February 24 and May 4, 2022 ). Hungary currently stands the fourth highest receiver of Ukrainian refugees since the war broke out.
- The current number of refugees in the country exceeds predictions made by UNHCR on March 1 by 208%. The report estimated the country would receive 250,000 refugees by July 2022.
- A total of 952,400 refugees have entered Hungary from Ukraine and third countries since the war began on February 24, 2022.
- An estimated 72% of refugees entering Hungary are women and children, as well as older people and those with disabilities (as of May 4, 2022).
- Many entering refugees are in need of urgent medical care, including persons with chronic illnesses and those with mental and physical disabilities.
- An estimated 16,400 refugees and counting have applied for protected status, reports the Associated Press.
- Hungary’s government says it has provided around $8.7 million to several charitable organizations and is giving subsidies to companies that employ Ukrainians granted asylum.
- Between March and August 2022, UNHCR predicts Hungary will require a budget of $32,500,000 for humanitarian response efforts and refugee relief services. This is the lowest predicted budget of all countries neighboring Western Ukraine. Predicted budgets continue to rise as more refugees enter the country.
Romania
- Romania has received 545,311 refugees* from Ukraine (between February 24 and May 4, 2022). Romania currently stands as the second highest receiver of Ukrainian refugees since the war broke out, second only to Poland, which has received 3,119,196.
- The current number of refugees in the country exceeds predictions made by UNHCR on March 1 by 118%. The report estimated the country would receive 250,000 refugees by July 2022.
- 56% of refugees entering Romania (as of April 27, 2022) plan to stay in the country until the war in Ukraine ends*.
- 20% of refugees entering Romania (as of April 27, 2022) do not know how long they intend to stay in the country*.
- 35% of refugees entering Romania (as of April 27, 2022) reported that family and friends located in the region was the main driver for selecting the country as their destination*.
- Between March and August 2022, UNHCR predicts Romania will require a budget of $65,135,000 for humanitarian response efforts and refugee relief services. Predicted budgets continue to rise as more refugees enter the country.
* These statistics are based on 1,500 interviews UNHCR conducted with people crossing from Ukraine into Romania, and were published in the agency’s situation report on Ukrainian Refugees, released on April 27, 2022. Interviews were conducted at every border checkpoint and certain reception centers, and began on 28 February. These statistics are based on cumulative responses from 28 February to 27 April, 2022.
Slovakia
- Slovakia has received 388,282 refugees from Ukraine (between February 24 and May 4, 2022). Slovakia currently stands as the sixth highest receiver of Ukrainian refugees, following Poland, Romania, Russia, Hungary, and The Republic of Moldova.
- The number of refugees in the country exceeds predictions made by UNHCR on March 1 by 547%. The report estimated the country would receive 60,000 refugees by July 2022.
- 64% of refugees entering Slovakia (as of April 20, 2022) intend to stay in the country until the war in Ukraine ends*.
- 13% of refugees entering Slovakia (as of April 20, 2022) do not know how long they intend to stay in the country*.
- 29% of refugees entering Slovakia (as of April 20, 2022) reported that the reason for selecting the country as their destination was because it is the most direct route to the Ukrainian border*.
- 45% of refugees entering Slovakia (as of April 20, 2022) reported that family and friends located in the region was the main driver for selecting the country as their destination*.
- 13% of refugees entering Slovakia (as of April 20, 2022) stated Germany was their intended destination*.
- 10% of refugees entering Slovakia (as of April 20, 2022) stated the Czech Republic was their intended destination*.
- Between March and August 2022, UNHCR predicts Slovakia will require a budget of $33,650,000 for humanitarian response efforts and refugee relief services. Predicted budgets continue to rise as more refugees enter the country.
* These statistics are based on 882 interviews UNHCR conducted with people crossing from Ukraine into Slovakia, and were published in the agency’s situation report on Ukrainian Refugees, released on April 20, 2022. Interviews were conducted at every border checkpoint and certain reception centers, and began on 28 February. These statistics are based on cumulative responses from 28 February to 20 April, 2022.
The Republic of Moldova
- The Republic of Moldova has received 450,797 refugees from Ukraine (as of May 4, 2022). Moldova currently stands as the fifth highest receiver of Ukrainian refugees, behind Poland, Romania, Russia, and Hungary.
- The number of refugees in the country exceeds predictions made by UNHCR on March 1 by 351%. The report estimated the country would receive 100,000 refugees by July 2022.
- 29% of refugees entering Moldova (as of April 28, 2022) do not know how long intend to stay in the country*.
- 20% of refugees are entering Moldova with children between the ages of 0-5 (as of April 28, 2022)*.
- 43% of refugees are entering Moldova with children between the ages of 6-18 (as of April 28, 2022)*.
- 71% of refugees entering Moldova (as of April 28, 2022) reported that family and friends located in the region was the main driver for selecting the country as their destination*.
- 70% of refugees entering Moldova (as of April 28, 2022) reported they are staying with family/friend/s in the country*.
- 42% of refugees entering Moldova (as of April 28, 2022) reported the convenience of the region for future plans was the main driver for selecting the country as their destination*.
- Between March and August 2022, UNHCR predicts Moldova will require a budget of $121,167,000 for humanitarian response efforts and refugee relief services. Predicted budgets continue to rise as more refugees enter the country.
* These statistics are based on 1,631 interviews UNHCR conducted with people crossing from Ukraine into The Republic of Moldova, and were published in the agency’s situation report on Ukrainian Refugees, released on April 28, 2022. Interviews were conducted at every border checkpoint and certain reception centers, and began on 28 February. These statistics are based on cumulative responses from 28 February to 28 April, 2022.
For continual data updates on mobility patterns and changes in population densities in Poland, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia, and Moldova, visit CrisisReady’s interactive mapping dashboard.
For questions on CrisisReady data reports and products related to the war in Ukraine, please contact communications@crisisready.io.
